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核武装国家如何将朝鲜危机带到自己身上?

作者:admin 来源:未知 时间:2017-09-06 阅读: 字体:

North Korea’s defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons capabilities, dramatised by last weekend’s powerful underground test and a recent long-range ballistic missile launch over Japan, has been almost universally condemned as posing a grave, unilateral threat to international peace and security.
朝鲜的大胆追求核武器的能力,戏剧化的上周末的强大的地下试验和最近在日本的远程弹道导弹的发射,几乎普遍被指责为造成严重,对国际和平与安全的单方威胁。
The growing North Korean menace also reflects the chronic failure of multilateral counter-proliferation efforts and, in particular, the longstanding refusal of acknowledged nuclear-armed states such as the US and Britain to honour a legal commitment to reduce and eventually eliminate their arsenals.
越来越多的朝鲜的威胁也反映了多边防扩散努力的慢性衰竭,特别是长期以来拒绝承认拥有核武器的国家如美国和英国的荣誉法律承诺减少并最终消除其核武库。
For Trump and the US right, breaking the nuclear taboo has always been thinkable
特朗普和美国的权利,打破核禁忌一直想像
In other words, the past and present leaders of the US, Russia, China, France and the UK, whose governments signed but have not fulfilled the terms of the 1970 nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), have to some degree brought the North Korea crisis on themselves. Kim Jong-un’s recklessness and bad faith is a product of their own.
换句话说,在美国,俄罗斯,中国的过去和现在的领导人,法国和英国,其政府签署但尚未履行的1970核不扩散条约(NPT)的条款,在一定程度上自己带来的朝鲜危机。Kim Jong un的鲁莽和不信任的是自己的产品。
The NPT, signed by 191 countries, is probably the most successful arms control treaty ever. When conceived in 1968, at the height of the cold war, the mass proliferation of nuclear weapons was considered a real possibility. Since its inception and prior to North Korea, only India, Pakistan and Israel are known to have joined the nuclear “club” in almost half a century.
由191个国家签署的《不扩散条约》可能是有史以来最成功的军备控制条约。当1968在冷战高度时构想出来时,核武器的大规模扩散被认为是切实可行的。自朝鲜成立以来,印度、巴基斯坦和以色列几乎在半个世纪内就加入了核俱乐部。
To work fully, the NPT relies on keeping a crucial bargain: non-nuclear-armed states agree never to acquire the weapons, while nuclear-armed states agree to share the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology and pursue nuclear disarmament with the ultimate aim of eliminating them. This, in effect, was the guarantee offered to vulnerable, insecure outlier states such as North Korea. The guarantee was a dud, however, and the bargain has never been truly honoured.
为了充分开展工作,《不扩散核武器条约》依赖于维持一项至关重要的协议:无核武器国家同意不购买武器,而核武器国家同意分享和平核技术的好处,并进行核裁军,最终目的是消除核武器。实际上,这是向脆弱的、不安全的离群状态(如朝鲜)提供的保证。保证是无用的,但是,和交易中从未被真正兑现。
Analysis Why a return to diplomacy over North Korea has few takers
朝鲜回归外交的原因分析
Despite some progress made, critics say six-party talks launched in 2003 were unwieldy and exploited by Pyongyang
尽管取得了一些进展,批评人士说,2003发射的六方会谈很难处理,被平壤利用。
Rather than reducing their nuclear arsenals, the US, Russia and China have modernised and expanded them. Britain has eliminated some of its capability, but it is nevertheless renewing and updating Trident. France clings fiercely to its “force de frappe”. Altogether, the main nuclear-weapon states have an estimated 22,000 nuclear bombs. A report by the non-governmental British-American Security Information Council in May said nuclear security was getting worse.
而不是削减其核武库,美国、俄罗斯和中国拥有现代化和扩大他们的。英国已经淘汰了它的一些能力,但它还是更新和更新了三叉戟。法国秉承着“威慑力量”。总的来说,主要核武器国家估计有22000枚核弹。美国非政府安全信息委员会5月发表的一份报告称,核安全正在恶化。
“The need for nuclear disarmament through multilateral diplomacy is greater now than it has been at any stage since the end of the cold war. Trust and confidence in the existing nuclear non-proliferation regime is fraying, tensions are high, goals are misaligned and dialogue is irregular,” the report said.
“通过多边外交进行核裁军的需要比冷战结束以来任何阶段都要大。在现有的核不扩散制度的信任和信心的磨损,张力高,目标是对齐的,对话是不规则的,”报告说。
“Internationally, relationships between the nuclear-weapon states have deteriorated, in particular between the US and Russia, and to some extent, China … All nuclear-armed states are modernising their nuclear forces, at a worldwide cost of $1tn per decade … Attention tends to be focused on specific cases of proliferation concern, such as North Korea and Iran, at the expense of the bigger picture.”
“在国际上,核武器国家之间的关系已经恶化,特别是美国和俄罗斯之间,并在一定程度上,中国…所有拥有核武器的国家是现代化的核力量,在1万亿美元每十…全球成本的关注往往集中在扩散问题的具体案例,如朝鲜和伊朗,在更大的牺牲。”
Multilateral forums for advancing nuclear disarmament are in crisis. The next NPT review conference is not due until 2020. Like its 2015 predecessor, it is not expected to achieve much. The UN-backed conference on disarmament, which helped produce conventions banning biological and chemical weapons and initiated the 1996 comprehensive test ban treaty, is politically polarised and struggling to agree key measures such as a fissile material cut-off treaty.
促进核裁军的多边论坛陷入危机。下一次不扩散条约审议大会将于2020之前到期。和它的2015个前任一样,预计不会有太大的成就。联合国支持的裁军谈判会议帮助制定禁止生物武器和化学武器的公约,并发起了1996项全面禁止核试验条约,在政治上两极分化,并努力达成关键措施,如裂变材料禁产条约。
Guardian Today: the headlines, the analysis, the debate - sent direct to you
卫报今天:标题,分析,辩论-直接发送给你
Meanwhile, as South Korea and Japan consider acquiring nuclear weapons, Donald Trump appears irrationally determined to scrap one of the few recent arms control successes – the landmark 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
同时,韩国和日本将获得核武器,唐纳德·特朗普出现了非理性的决定取消对最近的一些武器控制的成功–里程碑2015与伊朗达成核协议。
There has been one big breakthrough this year, the under-reported adoption by 122 countries at the UN in July of a new treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons, which envisages an outright ban on the use of all nukes. It has, however, been potentially fatally undermined by a boycott by the nuclear powers. The US, Britain and France declared, cynically as critics saw it, that they preferred to stick with the never-ending NPT route to disarmament. “This initiative clearly disregards the realities of the international security environment,” they said in a joint statement.
今年发生了一个大的突破,在报道采用由122个国家在联合国七月新条约禁止核武器,设想在所有核武器的使用完全的禁止。然而,由于核大国的抵制,它可能受到致命的破坏。美国,英国和法国宣布,冷嘲热讽,评论家认为,他们宁愿坚持永无止境的NPT路线裁军。“这一举措显然无视国际安全环境的现实,”他们在一份联合声明中说。
The ineffectiveness of current arms control and counter-proliferation efforts has helped to create an environment in which North Korea, allegedly using smuggled, Russian-designed ballistic missile engines, is rapidly advancing its nuclear ambitions with apparent impunity, at great risk to international stability.
当前军控和防扩散努力的无效性有助于创造一个环境,在朝鲜,据说使用走私,俄罗斯设计的弹道导弹的引擎,正在快速推进其核野心而安然无恙,在巨大的风险对国际稳定。
Multilateral arms control failures also mean the Korean “solution” Trump talks about with increasing frequency – the use of preventive military action, notwithstanding its illegality under international law – could, if applied, spell the end of deterrence and the beginning of an unchecked global nuclear arms race.
多边军控的失败也意味着王牌谈到随着频率的增加–预防性军事行动利用朝鲜的“解决方案”,尽管其违法国际法–可以,如果应用法术的威慑下,最终和一个失控的全球核军备竞赛的开始。

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